BRAHMA CHELLANEY
NOV 27, 2016 7
B
ERLIN – Tensions over water are rising in Asia – and not only because of conflicting maritime claims. While territorial disputes, such as in the South China Sea, attract the most attention – after all, they threaten the safety of sea lanes and freedom of navigation, which affects outside powers as well – the strategic ramifications of competition over transnationally shared freshwater resources are just as ominous.
Asia has less fresh water per capita than any other continent, and it is already facing a water crisis that, according to an MIT study, will continue to intensify, with severe water shortages expected by 2050. At a time of widespread geopolitical discord, competition over freshwater resources could emerge as a serious threat to long-term peace and stability in Asia.
Already, the battle is underway, with China as the main aggressor. Indeed, China’s territorial grab in the South China Sea has been accompanied by a quieter grab of resources in transnational river basins. Reengineering cross-border riparian flows is integral to China’s strategy to assert greater control and influence over Asia.
Wednesday, November 30, 2016
Trump, the Dragon, and the Minotaur
NOV 28, 2016
ATHENS – If Donald Trump understands anything, it is the value of bankruptcy and financial recycling. He knows all about success via strategic defaults, followed by massive debt write-offs and the creation of assets from liabilities. But does he grasp the profound difference between a developer’s debt and the debt of a large economy? And does he understand that China’s private debt bubble is a powder keg under the global economy? Much hinges on whether he does.
ATHENS – If Donald Trump understands anything, it is the value of bankruptcy and financial recycling. He knows all about success via strategic defaults, followed by massive debt write-offs and the creation of assets from liabilities. But does he grasp the profound difference between a developer’s debt and the debt of a large economy? And does he understand that China’s private debt bubble is a powder keg under the global economy? Much hinges on whether he does.
The age of disruption
Vivian Balakrishnan
Nov 30, 2016
In a keynote address at The Straits Times Global Outlook Forum yesterday, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan described 2016 as a year of the unexpected, highlighting events such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the United States president. Other themes dominated in the year, such as a rising China and the expansion of activities by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that appear to target the South-east Asian region. He painted a picture of the world at the beginning of a new age of revolution, where technology - not trade - is the great disrupter; where anxieties over jobs and ways of life are rising at a time when the world is becoming more interconnected. Below is an edited excerpt.
Nov 30, 2016
In a keynote address at The Straits Times Global Outlook Forum yesterday, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan described 2016 as a year of the unexpected, highlighting events such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as the United States president. Other themes dominated in the year, such as a rising China and the expansion of activities by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria that appear to target the South-east Asian region. He painted a picture of the world at the beginning of a new age of revolution, where technology - not trade - is the great disrupter; where anxieties over jobs and ways of life are rising at a time when the world is becoming more interconnected. Below is an edited excerpt.
Monday, November 28, 2016
China lodges protest with Singapore over Terrex vehicles seized in Hong Kong
NOVEMBER 28, 2016
BEIJING — China said on Monday (Nov 28) it had lodged a protest with Singapore after Singaporean armoured troop carriers were seized by Hong Kong customs en route back from Taiwan, as a state-owned newspaper warned against Singapore's "hypocrisy".
The nine troop carriers were impounded in Hong Kong last week, sparking a rebuke to Singapore from China's foreign ministry about maintaining military ties with self-ruled Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province.
"China has already made representations over this to the Singapore side," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press briefing on Monday.
China had also "demanded" that Singapore abide by Hong Kong's relevant laws and cooperate with the Hong Kong government to handle relevant follow-up work, he added.
Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
China always opposes countries which have relations with China also having "any form of official exchanges with the Taiwan region, including military exchanges and cooperation", Mr Geng said.
BEIJING — China said on Monday (Nov 28) it had lodged a protest with Singapore after Singaporean armoured troop carriers were seized by Hong Kong customs en route back from Taiwan, as a state-owned newspaper warned against Singapore's "hypocrisy".
The nine troop carriers were impounded in Hong Kong last week, sparking a rebuke to Singapore from China's foreign ministry about maintaining military ties with self-ruled Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province.
"China has already made representations over this to the Singapore side," Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press briefing on Monday.
China had also "demanded" that Singapore abide by Hong Kong's relevant laws and cooperate with the Hong Kong government to handle relevant follow-up work, he added.
Hong Kong, a former British colony, returned to Chinese rule in 1997.
China always opposes countries which have relations with China also having "any form of official exchanges with the Taiwan region, including military exchanges and cooperation", Mr Geng said.
When reality bites in a 'post-truth' world
Thinking Aloud
Warren Fernandez
Editor
NOV 27, 2016
Spread of fake news, shorter attention span and lack of engagement leave young vulnerable to being misled online
It used to be that black was black, and white was white.
Then came fifty shades of grey.
Next, someone insisted that it was actually a deep blue, or perhaps a murky green.
Beyond a point, it began to seem that the colour was whatever you said it was, provided you shouted loud enough or repeated it over and again. Eventually, people might believe you.
This, we are told, is the new "post-truth" world, where things are not always what they seem, and you neither have to mean what you say nor say what you mean.
In this new world, politicians have been busy reassuring the President-elect of the United States Donald Trump that no one really thought he would do as he pledged on the stump, and fewer still would mind if he simply forgot what he had said during the campaign.
The reason for this is simple: The alternative of him doing as he promised is just too scary to contemplate, so isn't it better if we let it slide, and all just get along?
That way, we might conclude that climate change is not a "hoax invented by China", as Mr Trump once claimed, and instead "keep an open mind, to study the issue very hard", as he now purports.
Warren Fernandez
Editor
NOV 27, 2016
Spread of fake news, shorter attention span and lack of engagement leave young vulnerable to being misled online
It used to be that black was black, and white was white.
Then came fifty shades of grey.
Next, someone insisted that it was actually a deep blue, or perhaps a murky green.
Beyond a point, it began to seem that the colour was whatever you said it was, provided you shouted loud enough or repeated it over and again. Eventually, people might believe you.
This, we are told, is the new "post-truth" world, where things are not always what they seem, and you neither have to mean what you say nor say what you mean.
In this new world, politicians have been busy reassuring the President-elect of the United States Donald Trump that no one really thought he would do as he pledged on the stump, and fewer still would mind if he simply forgot what he had said during the campaign.
The reason for this is simple: The alternative of him doing as he promised is just too scary to contemplate, so isn't it better if we let it slide, and all just get along?
That way, we might conclude that climate change is not a "hoax invented by China", as Mr Trump once claimed, and instead "keep an open mind, to study the issue very hard", as he now purports.
Russian propaganda effort helped spread ‘fake news’ during election, experts say
By Craig Timberg
November 24
The flood of “fake news” this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation.
Russia’s increasingly sophisticated propaganda machinery — including thousands of botnets, teams of paid human “trolls,” and networks of websites and social-media accounts — echoed and amplified right-wing sites across the Internet as they portrayed Clinton as a criminal hiding potentially fatal health problems and preparing to hand control of the nation to a shadowy cabal of global financiers. The effort also sought to heighten the appearance of international tensions and promote fear of looming hostilities with nuclear-armed Russia.
Two teams of independent researchers found that the Russians exploited American-made technology platforms to attack U.S. democracy at a particularly vulnerable moment, as an insurgent candidate harnessed a wide range of grievances to claim the White House. The sophistication of the Russian tactics may complicate efforts by Facebook and Google to crack down on “fake news,” as they have vowed to do after widespread complaints about the problem.
There is no way to know whether the Russian campaign proved decisive in electing Trump, but researchers portray it as part of a broadly effective strategy of sowing distrust in U.S. democracy and its leaders. The tactics included penetrating the computers of election officials in several states and releasing troves of hacked emails that embarrassed Clinton in the final months of her campaign.
“They want to essentially erode faith in the U.S. government or U.S. government interests,” said Clint Watts, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who along with two other researchers has tracked Russian propaganda since 2014. “This was their standard mode during the Cold War. The problem is that this was hard to do before social media.”
November 24
The flood of “fake news” this election season got support from a sophisticated Russian propaganda campaign that created and spread misleading articles online with the goal of punishing Democrat Hillary Clinton, helping Republican Donald Trump and undermining faith in American democracy, say independent researchers who tracked the operation.
Russia’s increasingly sophisticated propaganda machinery — including thousands of botnets, teams of paid human “trolls,” and networks of websites and social-media accounts — echoed and amplified right-wing sites across the Internet as they portrayed Clinton as a criminal hiding potentially fatal health problems and preparing to hand control of the nation to a shadowy cabal of global financiers. The effort also sought to heighten the appearance of international tensions and promote fear of looming hostilities with nuclear-armed Russia.
Two teams of independent researchers found that the Russians exploited American-made technology platforms to attack U.S. democracy at a particularly vulnerable moment, as an insurgent candidate harnessed a wide range of grievances to claim the White House. The sophistication of the Russian tactics may complicate efforts by Facebook and Google to crack down on “fake news,” as they have vowed to do after widespread complaints about the problem.
There is no way to know whether the Russian campaign proved decisive in electing Trump, but researchers portray it as part of a broadly effective strategy of sowing distrust in U.S. democracy and its leaders. The tactics included penetrating the computers of election officials in several states and releasing troves of hacked emails that embarrassed Clinton in the final months of her campaign.
“They want to essentially erode faith in the U.S. government or U.S. government interests,” said Clint Watts, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute who along with two other researchers has tracked Russian propaganda since 2014. “This was their standard mode during the Cold War. The problem is that this was hard to do before social media.”
Teachable moments from HK’s seizure of SAF vehicles
DAVID BOEY
TODAY
NOVEMBER 28, 2016
Without a shot fired, the Singapore Army lost possession of nine Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles (ICVs) after Hong Kong Customs impounded the armoured vehicles as they were transiting through the port.
This episode has many teachable moments for followers of statecraft, and must be played out carefully as the concluding act has yet to take centre stage.
Any diplomatic gaffes or missteps by any party could result in misgivings that linger long after the fate of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) war machines has been decided upon.
This would have unfortunate consequences for the parties concerned if what could be ascribed to routine/rigorous customs checks is given another spin.
News of this episode — the largest-ever seizure of SAF war machines — emerged last Thursday, courtesy of Hong Kong news portal, FactWire.
It had reported that up to 12 Terrex ICVs were seized at the container terminal as they were en route from the Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung to Singapore.
Within days, the topic of SAF training in Taiwan has come under the spotlight, with many theories postulated.
At one end of the spectrum, some theorised an administrative gaffe as the culprit.
More complex interpretations blamed strategic topics du jour such as the South China Sea dispute, the city-state’s leanings towards the United States, and military training in Taiwan as possible irritants to China-Singapore ties that could have prompted Hong Kong Customs officials to impound the Terrex ICVs.
TODAY
NOVEMBER 28, 2016
Without a shot fired, the Singapore Army lost possession of nine Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles (ICVs) after Hong Kong Customs impounded the armoured vehicles as they were transiting through the port.
This episode has many teachable moments for followers of statecraft, and must be played out carefully as the concluding act has yet to take centre stage.
Any diplomatic gaffes or missteps by any party could result in misgivings that linger long after the fate of the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) war machines has been decided upon.
This would have unfortunate consequences for the parties concerned if what could be ascribed to routine/rigorous customs checks is given another spin.
News of this episode — the largest-ever seizure of SAF war machines — emerged last Thursday, courtesy of Hong Kong news portal, FactWire.
It had reported that up to 12 Terrex ICVs were seized at the container terminal as they were en route from the Taiwanese port of Kaohsiung to Singapore.
Within days, the topic of SAF training in Taiwan has come under the spotlight, with many theories postulated.
At one end of the spectrum, some theorised an administrative gaffe as the culprit.
More complex interpretations blamed strategic topics du jour such as the South China Sea dispute, the city-state’s leanings towards the United States, and military training in Taiwan as possible irritants to China-Singapore ties that could have prompted Hong Kong Customs officials to impound the Terrex ICVs.
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