Aug 15, 2011
Ann Williams looks at how the US and notable European players are faring in the turmoil
THE UNITED STATES
Gross domestic product (GDP): US$14.66 trillion (S$17.77 trillion) as at end-2010
Public debt: US$14.6 trillion as at Aug 14
Debt as percentage of GDP: 99.6 per cent
Economic growth: Estimated 1.3 per cent in second quarter (Q2) of this year
Unemployment: 9.1 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 7.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Two weeks ago, the US public debt surpassed its GDP for the first time since World War II.
Democrats and Republicans locked horns over raising the debt ceiling - the statutory limit of US government indebtedness. The measure was passed on Aug 2, narrowly averting a debt default.
As a result of the fracas, rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered the country's AAA rating to AA+ for the first time in history.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
With unemployment still high and business and consumer confidence dropping, the risk that the economy will slide into another recession has grown.
The US government may need to launch a third round of monetary easing - 'printing money' to buy US Treasuries and boost the economy. But this risks an ever-weaker US dollar and high inflation.
Meanwhile, political gridlock in Congress and the Senate threatens to slow down required policy action from the Obama administration.
FRANCE
GDP: US$2.58 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$4.7 trillion as at this month
Debt as percentage of GDP: 182 per cent
Economic growth: Zero per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 9.2 per cent as at this month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 12.5 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Shares of French banks, which are heavily exposed to Greek and other euro zone government debt, plunged last Wednesday on rumours over their health, with Societe Generale the worst hit.
Investors were further spooked by rumours that France would be next to lose its top-notch credit rating following the US downgrade.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy cut short his vacation and gave his ministers one week to come up with new measures to cut the country's crippling debt burden. The government also imposed a 15-day ban on short-selling and opened an investigation into the market turbulence.
To cap a tumultuous week, figures out on Friday showed that the French economy - Europe's second-largest - ground to a halt in the second quarter as it grapples with the growing costs of managing Europe's debt crisis.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
All eyes are now on a meeting tomorrow between Mr Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as the two leaders try to avert a banking and sovereign-debt crisis that threatens to spiral out of control.
But there are big doubts that Dr Merkel will announce her backing for additional crisis-fighting measures, given domestic opposition.
GERMANY
GDP: US$3.32 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.72 trillion as at end-2010
Debt as percentage of GDP: 80 per cent
Economic growth: Estimated 0.3 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 7 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 16.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Even Germany, a model of fiscal prudence, has seen its public debt rise sharply.
German coalition lawmakers last week rejected a further expansion of the €440 billion (S$760 billion) rescue fund or the creation of euro bonds that would effectively make individual governments' debts a common burden.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
As Europe's largest economy, Germany is already bearing much of the euro zone's bailout burden. Now the question is how much more it is willing to take on.
Its economy is also showing signs of slowing, and Dr Merkel is facing a backlash from critics in her own political coalition who are calling for her to put the brakes on further bailouts.
ITALY
GDP: US$2.06 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.7 trillion as at end-April
Debt as percentage of GDP: 120 per cent
Economic growth: 0.3 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 8 per cent as at this month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 13.8 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
European shares plunged last week on fears that Italy, which has one of the largest public debts in the world, could become the next victim in the spreading euro zone debt crisis due to its poor economic growth and domestic political tensions. Its economy is more than twice the size of the combined economies of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, so its economic problems alone could jeopardize the euro zone's survival.
The European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to step into the market and buy Italian and Spanish bonds after their interest rates soared to 14-year highs.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced a painful mix of tax increases and spending cuts on Friday to meet ECB demands for action.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Mr Berlusconi's already shaky political future is on the line after rebellion broke out in his ranks over the tough new package of spending cuts and tax rises.
Market panic has eased for now with ECB intervention, but last week's wild swings on the stock market underline the persistent fear among investors.
SPAIN
GDP: US$1.41 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.17 trillion as at this month
Debt as percentage of GDP: 154 per cent
Economic growth: 0.2 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 20.9 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 10.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Like Italy, Spain became the focal point of market panic last week on fears that it would also need bailing out. Unemployment has stayed above a whopping 20 per cent since last year and the government is struggling, amid suffocating austerity, to find the growth it needs to service a huge public debt.
On Aug 12, the European Commission ruled that Spain could temporarily close its labour market to Romanian immigrants - the first time barriers to free movement of workers have been reimposed within the European Union. At 800,000, Romanians are Spain's largest foreign group.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Unfortunately for Spain, Romanians already in the country can continue to claim the same unemployment benefits as other EU citizens.
The debt market turmoil - with borrowing costs soaring - risks choking off the country's weak economic recovery, which slowed in the second quarter.
GREECE
GDP: US$305.42 billion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$498.6 billion as at April
Debt as percentage of GDP: 160 per cent
Economic growth: -0.8 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 16.6 per cent as at May
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 17.7 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Talks with the country's creditors on a bond swap plan have stumbled. The plan was part of a second, €109 billion bailout package for Greece to cover its financing needs for the next several years.
Citing poor private-sector participation, officials revealed last week that a plan to swap Greek government debt maturing by 2020 into new, longer-dated securities might be extended to include bonds falling due in 2022 or even 2024.
Fresh data last week also showed a sharp increase in the country's budget deficit as revenue collections continued to lag, and that the economy shrank again in the second quarter. Greece remains in a third year of recession as austerity measures promised in exchange for two international bailout packages begin to bite.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Any extension of the bond swap plan means Greece's bondholders - mainly European banks and insurers - will incur even deeper losses. Their shares have already been hammered by their exposure to Greek debt following an agreed bailout package last month.The tough talks also show the difficulties faced by the euro zone in getting the private sector to significantly contribute to any debt easing.
UNITED KINGDOM
GDP: US$2.25 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.25 trillion as at Aug 3
Debt as percentage of GDP: 100.3 per cent
Economic growth: 0.2 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 7.7 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 8.5 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Four days of riots in Britain, which began on Aug 6, have cost businesses and insurers hundreds of millions of dollars. The cost to Britain's reputation - and its lucrative tourist trade in the run-up to the 2012 Olympic Games - may be incalculable.
Last Wednesday, the Bank of England again cut its forecast for economic growth this year, to 1.4 per cent from 1.8 per cent, due to serious threats from the euro zone's debt crisis.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Will Britain have to cough up more? As a non-euro zone country, it has no involvement or exposure to the region's bailout fund, but it contributes to funds offered by the International Monetary Fund.
There is some concern that the riots in Britain could dissuade its government from moving forward with planned austerity measures.
ann@sph.com.sg
Ann Williams looks at how the US and notable European players are faring in the turmoil
THE UNITED STATES
Gross domestic product (GDP): US$14.66 trillion (S$17.77 trillion) as at end-2010
Public debt: US$14.6 trillion as at Aug 14
Debt as percentage of GDP: 99.6 per cent
Economic growth: Estimated 1.3 per cent in second quarter (Q2) of this year
Unemployment: 9.1 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 7.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Two weeks ago, the US public debt surpassed its GDP for the first time since World War II.
Democrats and Republicans locked horns over raising the debt ceiling - the statutory limit of US government indebtedness. The measure was passed on Aug 2, narrowly averting a debt default.
As a result of the fracas, rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered the country's AAA rating to AA+ for the first time in history.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
With unemployment still high and business and consumer confidence dropping, the risk that the economy will slide into another recession has grown.
The US government may need to launch a third round of monetary easing - 'printing money' to buy US Treasuries and boost the economy. But this risks an ever-weaker US dollar and high inflation.
Meanwhile, political gridlock in Congress and the Senate threatens to slow down required policy action from the Obama administration.
FRANCE
GDP: US$2.58 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$4.7 trillion as at this month
Debt as percentage of GDP: 182 per cent
Economic growth: Zero per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 9.2 per cent as at this month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 12.5 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Shares of French banks, which are heavily exposed to Greek and other euro zone government debt, plunged last Wednesday on rumours over their health, with Societe Generale the worst hit.
Investors were further spooked by rumours that France would be next to lose its top-notch credit rating following the US downgrade.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy cut short his vacation and gave his ministers one week to come up with new measures to cut the country's crippling debt burden. The government also imposed a 15-day ban on short-selling and opened an investigation into the market turbulence.
To cap a tumultuous week, figures out on Friday showed that the French economy - Europe's second-largest - ground to a halt in the second quarter as it grapples with the growing costs of managing Europe's debt crisis.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
All eyes are now on a meeting tomorrow between Mr Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, as the two leaders try to avert a banking and sovereign-debt crisis that threatens to spiral out of control.
But there are big doubts that Dr Merkel will announce her backing for additional crisis-fighting measures, given domestic opposition.
GERMANY
GDP: US$3.32 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.72 trillion as at end-2010
Debt as percentage of GDP: 80 per cent
Economic growth: Estimated 0.3 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 7 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 16.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Even Germany, a model of fiscal prudence, has seen its public debt rise sharply.
German coalition lawmakers last week rejected a further expansion of the €440 billion (S$760 billion) rescue fund or the creation of euro bonds that would effectively make individual governments' debts a common burden.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
As Europe's largest economy, Germany is already bearing much of the euro zone's bailout burden. Now the question is how much more it is willing to take on.
Its economy is also showing signs of slowing, and Dr Merkel is facing a backlash from critics in her own political coalition who are calling for her to put the brakes on further bailouts.
ITALY
GDP: US$2.06 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.7 trillion as at end-April
Debt as percentage of GDP: 120 per cent
Economic growth: 0.3 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 8 per cent as at this month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 13.8 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
European shares plunged last week on fears that Italy, which has one of the largest public debts in the world, could become the next victim in the spreading euro zone debt crisis due to its poor economic growth and domestic political tensions. Its economy is more than twice the size of the combined economies of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, so its economic problems alone could jeopardize the euro zone's survival.
The European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to step into the market and buy Italian and Spanish bonds after their interest rates soared to 14-year highs.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi announced a painful mix of tax increases and spending cuts on Friday to meet ECB demands for action.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Mr Berlusconi's already shaky political future is on the line after rebellion broke out in his ranks over the tough new package of spending cuts and tax rises.
Market panic has eased for now with ECB intervention, but last week's wild swings on the stock market underline the persistent fear among investors.
SPAIN
GDP: US$1.41 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.17 trillion as at this month
Debt as percentage of GDP: 154 per cent
Economic growth: 0.2 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 20.9 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 10.2 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Like Italy, Spain became the focal point of market panic last week on fears that it would also need bailing out. Unemployment has stayed above a whopping 20 per cent since last year and the government is struggling, amid suffocating austerity, to find the growth it needs to service a huge public debt.
On Aug 12, the European Commission ruled that Spain could temporarily close its labour market to Romanian immigrants - the first time barriers to free movement of workers have been reimposed within the European Union. At 800,000, Romanians are Spain's largest foreign group.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Unfortunately for Spain, Romanians already in the country can continue to claim the same unemployment benefits as other EU citizens.
The debt market turmoil - with borrowing costs soaring - risks choking off the country's weak economic recovery, which slowed in the second quarter.
GREECE
GDP: US$305.42 billion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$498.6 billion as at April
Debt as percentage of GDP: 160 per cent
Economic growth: -0.8 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 16.6 per cent as at May
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 17.7 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Talks with the country's creditors on a bond swap plan have stumbled. The plan was part of a second, €109 billion bailout package for Greece to cover its financing needs for the next several years.
Citing poor private-sector participation, officials revealed last week that a plan to swap Greek government debt maturing by 2020 into new, longer-dated securities might be extended to include bonds falling due in 2022 or even 2024.
Fresh data last week also showed a sharp increase in the country's budget deficit as revenue collections continued to lag, and that the economy shrank again in the second quarter. Greece remains in a third year of recession as austerity measures promised in exchange for two international bailout packages begin to bite.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Any extension of the bond swap plan means Greece's bondholders - mainly European banks and insurers - will incur even deeper losses. Their shares have already been hammered by their exposure to Greek debt following an agreed bailout package last month.The tough talks also show the difficulties faced by the euro zone in getting the private sector to significantly contribute to any debt easing.
UNITED KINGDOM
GDP: US$2.25 trillion as at end-2010
Public debt: US$2.25 trillion as at Aug 3
Debt as percentage of GDP: 100.3 per cent
Economic growth: 0.2 per cent in Q2 this year
Unemployment: 7.7 per cent as at last month
Fall in stock market since Aug 1: 8.5 per cent
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS:
Four days of riots in Britain, which began on Aug 6, have cost businesses and insurers hundreds of millions of dollars. The cost to Britain's reputation - and its lucrative tourist trade in the run-up to the 2012 Olympic Games - may be incalculable.
Last Wednesday, the Bank of England again cut its forecast for economic growth this year, to 1.4 per cent from 1.8 per cent, due to serious threats from the euro zone's debt crisis.
KEY ISSUES AHEAD:
Will Britain have to cough up more? As a non-euro zone country, it has no involvement or exposure to the region's bailout fund, but it contributes to funds offered by the International Monetary Fund.
There is some concern that the riots in Britain could dissuade its government from moving forward with planned austerity measures.
ann@sph.com.sg
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