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Organic Food, GM Food, and their potential to feed the World
[Three articles. First a bold claim that Organic Farming can feed 10 billion people. Spoiler: Everyone will have to be vegan or vegetarian. Presumably land used for rearing beef and other meat as well as land used to grow animal feed will be converted to farms for human food. Second a list of myths about organic farming. And third, an update on the dangers of GM Food. Spoiler: 50 years of studies found no dangers.]
Organic farming creates more profit and yields healthier produce.
It’s time it played the role it deserves in feeding a rapidly growing
world population
John Reganold
In
1971, then US Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz uttered these
unsympathetic words: “Before we go back to organic agriculture in this
country, somebody must decide which 50 million Americans we are going to
let starve or go hungry.” Since then, critics have continued to argue
that organic agriculture is inefficient,
requiring more land than conventional agriculture to yield the same
amount of food. Proponents have countered that increasing research could
reduce the yield gap, and organic agriculture generates environmental,
health and socioeconomic benefits that can’t be found with conventional
farming.
Organic agriculture occupies only 1% of global agricultural land,
making it a relatively untapped resource for one of the greatest
challenges facing humanity: producing enough food for a population that
could reach 10 billion by 2050, without the extensive deforestation and
harm to the wider environment.
That’s the conclusion my doctoral student Jonathan Wachter and I
reached in reviewing 40 years of science and hundreds of scientific
studies comparing the long term prospects of organic and conventional farming.
The study, Organic Agriculture in the 21st Century, published in Nature
Plants, is the first to compare organic and conventional agriculture
across the four main metrics of sustainability
identified by the US National Academy of Sciences: be productive,
economically profitable, environmentally sound and socially just. Like a
chair, for a farm to be sustainable, it needs to be stable, with all
four legs being managed so they are in balance.
We found that although organic farming systems produce yields that
average 10-20% less than conventional agriculture, they are more
profitable and environmentally friendly. Historically, conventional
agriculture has focused on increasing yields at the expense of the other
three sustainability metrics.
The flower petals and the labels represent different sustainability
metrics that compare organic farming with conventional farming. They
illustrate that organic systems can better balance the four areas of
sustainability: production (orange), environment (blue), economics (red)
and social wellbeing (green). Illustration: John Reganold and Jonathan
Wachter
In addition, organic farming delivers equally or more nutritious
foods that contain less or no pesticide residues, and provide greater
social benefits than their conventional counterparts.
With organic agriculture, environmental costs tend to be lower and the benefits greater.
Biodiversity loss, environmental degradation and severe impacts on
ecosystem services – which refer to nature’s support of wildlife
habitat, crop pollination, soil health and other benefits – have not
only accompanied conventional farming systems, but have often extended
well beyond the boundaries of their fields, such as fertilizer runoff
into rivers.
Overall, organic farms tend to have better soil quality and reduce
soil erosion compared to their conventional counterparts. Organic
agriculture generally creates less soil and water pollution and lower
greenhouse gas emissions, and is more energy efficient. Organic
agriculture is also associated with greater biodiversity of plants,
animals, insects and microbes as well as genetic diversity.
Despite lower yields, organic agriculture is more profitable (by
22–35%) for farmers because consumers are willing to pay more. These
higher prices essentially compensate farmers for preserving the quality
of their land.
Studies that evaluate social equity and quality of life for farm communities are few. Still, organic farming has been shown to create more jobs and reduce farm workers’ exposure to pesticides and other chemicals.
Organic farming can help to both feed the world and preserve wildland. In a study published this year, researchers modeled 500 food production scenarios
to see if we can feed an estimated world population of 9.6 billion
people in 2050 without expanding the area of farmland we already use.
They found that enough food could be produced with lower-yielding
organic farming, if people become vegetarians or eat a more plant-based
diet with lower meat consumption. The existing farmland can feed that
many people if they are all vegan, a 94% success rate if they are
vegetarian, 39% with a completely organic diet, and 15% with the
Western-style diet based on meat.
Realistically, we can’t expect everyone to forgo meat. Organic isn’t
the only sustainable option to conventional farming either. Other viable
types of farming exist, such as integrated farming where you blend
organic with conventional practices or grass-fed livestock systems.
[A typical "bait-and-switch" scam. First they tell you that it is possible to produce enough food with Organic farming to feed 10 billion people without increasing the amount of farmland. The answer is "yes. If everyone becomes vegan." But realistically, we can't expect everyone to forego meat, so we can blend organic with conventional farming. So in other words, if we want to eat meat, we can't go fully organic. So the honest answer should be "no". But good try with the "Yes, if..." answer.]
More than 40 years after Earl Butz’s comment, we are in a new era of
agriculture.During this period, the number of organic farms, the extent
of organically farmed land, the amount of research funding devoted to
organic farming and the market size for organic foods have steadily
increased. Sales of organic foods and beverages
are rapidly growing in the world, increasing almost fivefold between
1999 and 2013 to $72bn. This 2013 figure is projected to double by 2018.
Closer to home, organic food and beverage sales in 2015 represented
almost 5% of US food and beverage sales, up from 0.8% in 1997.
Scaling up organic agriculture with appropriate public policies and
private investment is an important step for global food and ecosystem
security. The challenge facing policymakers is to develop government
policies that support conventional farmers converting to organic
systems. For the private business sector, investing in organics offers a lot of entrepreneurial opportunities and is an area of budding growth that will likely continue for years to come.
In a time of increasing population growth, climate change and
environmental degradation, we need agricultural systems that come with a
more balanced portfolio of sustainability benefits. Organic farming is
one of the healthiest and strongest sectors in agriculture today and
will continue to grow and play a larger part in feeding the world. It
produces adequate yields and better unites human health, environment and
socioeconomic objectives than conventional farming. John Reganold is a Regents Professor of Soil Science & Agroecology at the Washington State University. ------
People believe a lot of things that we have little to no evidence for, like that vikings wore horned helmets or that you can see the Great Wall of China from space. One of the things I like to do on my blogs is bust commonly held myths that I think matter. For example, I get really annoyed when I hear someone say sharks don't get cancer (I'll save that rant for another day). From now onward, posts that attack conventionally believed untruths will fall under a series I'm going to call "Mythbusting 101." Ten
years ago, Certified Organic didn't exist in the United States. Yet in
2010, a mere eight years after USDA's regulations officially went into
effect, organic foods and beverages made $26.7 billion. In the past year
or two, certified organic sales have jumped to about $52 billion worldwide
despite the fact that organic foods cost up to three times as much as
those produced by conventional methods.
More and more, people are
shelling out their hard-earned cash for what they believe are the best
foods available. Imagine, people say: you can improve your nutrition
while helping save the planet from the evils of conventional agriculture
- a complete win-win. And who wouldn't buy organic, when it just sounds so good?
Here's the thing: there are a lot of myths out there about
organic foods, and a lot of propaganda supporting methods that are
rarely understood. It's like your mother used to say: just because
everyone is jumping off a bridge doesn't mean you should do it, too.
Now, before I get yelled at too much, let me state unequivocally that I'm not saying organic farming is bad - far from it.
There are some definite upsides and benefits that come from many
organic farming methods. For example, the efforts of organic farmers to
move away from monocultures, where crops are farmed in single-species
plots, are fantastic; crop rotations and mixed planting are much better
for the soil and environment. My goal in this post isn't to bash organic
farms, instead, it's to bust the worst of the myths that surround them
so that everyone can judge organic farming based on facts. In
particular, there are four myths thrown around like they're real that
just drive me crazy.
[So... there are other less worst myths?] Myth #1: Organic Farms Don't Use Pesticides
When the Soil Association, a major organic accreditation body in the UK, asked consumers why they buy organic food, 95% of them said their top reason was to avoid pesticides.
They, like many people, believe that organic farming involves little to
no pesticide use. I hate to burst the bubble, but that's simply not
true. Organic farming, just like other forms of agriculture, still uses
pesticides and fungicides to prevent critters from destroying their
crops. Confused?
So was I, when I first learned this from a guy I was dating. His
family owns a farm in rural Ohio. He was grumbling about how everyone
praised the local organic farms for being so
environmentally-conscientious, even though they sprayed their crops with
pesticides all the time while his family farm got no credit for being
pesticide-free (they're not organic because they use a
non-organic herbicide once a year). I didn't believe him at first, so I
looked into it: turns out that there are over 20 chemicals commonly used
in the growing and processing of organic crops that are approved by the
US Organic Standards. And, shockingly, the actual volume usage of
pesticides on organic farms is not recorded by the government. Why the
government isn't keeping watch on organic pesticide and fungicide use is
a damn good question, especially considering that many organic
pesticides that are also used by conventional farmers are used more
intensively than synthetic ones due to their lower levels of
effectiveness. According to the National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy, the top two organic fungicides, copper and sulfur, were used at a rate of 4 and 34 pounds per acre in 1971 1.
In contrast, the synthetic fungicides only required a rate of 1.6 lbs
per acre, less than half the amount of the organic alternatives.
The sad truth is, factory farming is factory farming, whether its
organic or conventional. Many large organic farms use pesticides
liberally. They're organic by certification, but you'd never know it if
you saw their farming practices. As Michael Pollan, best-selling book
author and organic supporter, said in an interview with Organic
Gardening,
"They're organic by the letter, not organic in
spirit... if most organic consumers went to those places, they would
feel they were getting ripped off."
What makes organic farming different, then? It's not the use of pesticides, it's the origin of the pesticides used.
Organic pesticides are those that are derived from natural sources and
processed lightly if at all before use. This is different than the
current pesticides used by conventional agriculture, which are generally
synthetic. It has been assumed for years that pesticides that occur
naturally (in certain plants, for example) are somehow better for us and
the environment than those that have been created by man. As more
research is done into their toxicity, however, this simply isn't true,
either. Many natural pesticides have been found to be potential - or
serious - health risks.2
Take the example of Rotenone. Rotenone was widely used in the US as an organic pesticide for decades 3. Because it is natural in origin, occurring in the roots and stems of a small number of subtropical plants, it was considered "safe" as well as "organic".
However, research has shown that rotenone is highly dangerous because
it kills by attacking mitochondria, the energy powerhouses of all living
cells. Research found that exposure to rotenone caused Parkinson's
Disease-like symptoms in rats 4, and had the potential to kill many species, including humans. Rotenone's use as a pesticide has already been discontinued in the US as of 2005 due to health concerns***, but shockingly, it's still poured into our waters every year by fisheries management officials as a piscicide to remove unwanted fish species.
*** Oh, it turns out Rotenone got re-approved for organic use in 2010.See for yourself.
The point I'm driving home here is that just because something is
natural doesn't make it non-toxic or safe. Many bacteria, fungi and
plants produce poisons, toxins and chemicals that you definitely
wouldn't want sprayed on your food.
Just last year, nearly half of the pesticides that are currently
approved for use by organic farmers in Europe failed to pass the
European Union's safety evaluation that is required by law 5.
Among the chemicals failing the test was rotenone, as it had yet to be
banned in Europe. Furthermore, just over 1% of organic foodstuffs
produced in 2007 and tested by the European Food Safety Authority were
found to contain pesticide levels above the legal maximum levels - and
these are of pesticides that are not organic 6.
Similarly, when Consumer Reports purchased a thousand pounds of
tomatoes, peaches, green bell peppers, and apples in five cities and
tested them for more than 300 synthetic pesticides, they found traces of
them in 25% of the organically-labeled foods, but between all of the
organic and non-organic foods tested, only one sample of each exceeded
the federal limits8.
Not only are organic pesticides not safe, they might actually be
worse than the ones used by the conventional agriculture industry.
Canadian scientists pitted 'reduced-risk' organic and synthetic
pesticides against each other in controlling a problematic pest, the
soybean aphid. They found that not only were the synthetic pesticides
more effective means of control, the organic pesticides were more ecologically damaging, including causing higher mortality in other, non-target species like the aphid's predators9.
Of course, some organic pesticides may fare better than these ones did
in similar head-to-head tests, but studies like this one reveal that the
assumption that natural is better for the environment could be very
dangerous.
Even if the organic food you're eating is from a farm
which uses little to no pesticides at all, there is another problem:
getting rid of pesticides doesn't mean your food is free from harmful
things. Between 1990 and 2001, over 10,000 people fell ill due to foods
contaminated with pathogens like E. coli, and many have organic
foods to blame. That's because organic foods tend to have higher levels
of potential pathogens. One study, for example, found E. coli in produce from almost 10% of organic farms samples, but only 2% of conventional ones10.
The same study also found Salmonella only in samples from organic
farms, though at a low prevalence rate. The reason for the higher
pathogen prevalence is likely due to the use of manure instead of
artificial fertilizers, as many pathogens are spread through fecal
contamination. Conventional farms often use manure, too, but they use
irradiation and a full array of non-organic anti-microbial agents as
well, and without those, organic foods run a higher risk of containing
something that will make a person sick.
In the end, it really depends on exactly what methods are used by
crop producers. Both organic and conventional farms vary widely in this
respect. Some conventional farms use no pesticides. Some organic farms
spray their crops twice a month. Of course, some conventional farms
spray just as frequently, if not more so, and some organic farms use no
pesticides whatsoever. To really know what you're in for, it's best if
you know your source, and a great way to do that is to buy locally. Talk
to the person behind the crop stand, and actually ask them what their
methods are if you want to be sure of what you're eating.
Myth #2: Organic Foods are Healthier
Some people believe that by not using manufactured chemicals or
genetically modified organisms, organic farming produces more nutritious
food. However, science simply cannot find any evidence that organic
foods are in any way healthier than non-organic ones - and scientists
have been comparing the two for over 50 years.
Just recently, an independent research project in the UK
systematically reviewed the 162 articles on organic versus non-organic
crops published in peer-reviewed journals between 1958 and 2008 11.
These contained a total of 3558 comparisons of content of nutrients and
other substances in organically and conventionally produced foods. They
found absolutely no evidence for any differences in content of over 15
different nutrients including vitamin C, ?-carotene, and calcium. There
were some differences, though; conventional crops had higher nitrogen
levels, while organic ones had higher phosphorus and acidity - none of
which factor in much to nutritional quality. Further analysis of similar
studies on livestock products like meat, dairy, and eggs also found few
differences in nutritional content. Organic foods did, however, have
higher levels of overall fats, particularly trans fats. So if anything,
the organic livestock products were found to be worse for us (though, to
be fair, barely).
“This is great news for consumers. It proves that the 98% of food
we consume, which is produced by technologically advanced agriculture,
is equally nutritious to the less than 2% derived from what is commonly
referred to as the 'organic' market," said Fredhelm Schmider, the
Director General of the European Crop Protection Association said in a
press release about the findings.12
Joseph D. Rosen, emeritus professor of food toxicology at
Rutgers, puts it even more strongly. "Any consumers who buy organic food
because they believe that it contains more healthful nutrients than
conventional food are wasting their money," he writes in a comprehensive
review of organic nutritional claims13.
Strong organic proponents also argue that organic food tastes
better. In the same poll where 95% of UK organic consumers said they buy
organic to avoid pesticides, over two-thirds of respondents said
organic produce and meats taste better than non-organic ones. But when
researchers had people put their mouths to the test, they found that
people couldn't tell the difference between the two in blind taste tests14, 18.
So, in short, organics are not better for us and we can't tell
the difference between them and non-organic foods. There may be many
things that are good about organic farming, from increased biodiversity
on farms to movement away from monocultures, but producing foods that
are healthier and tastier simply isn't one of them.
Myth #3: Organic Farming Is Better For The Environment
As an ecologist by training, this myth bothers me the most of all
three. People seem to believe they're doing the world a favor by eating
organic. The simple fact is that they're not - at least the issue is
not that cut and dry.
Yes, organic farming practices use less synthetic pesticides
which have been found to be ecologically damaging. But factory organic
farms use their own barrage of chemicals that are still ecologically
damaging, and refuse to endorse technologies that might reduce or
eliminate the use of these all together. Take, for example, organic
farming's adamant stance against genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
GMOs have the potential to up crop yields, increase nutritious
value, and generally improve farming practices while reducing synthetic
chemical use - which is exactly what organic farming seeks to do. As we
speak, there are sweet potatoes are being engineered to be resistant to a
virus that currently decimates the African harvest every year, which
could feed millions in some of the poorest nations in the world15. Scientists have created carrots high in calcium to fight osteoperosis, and tomatoes high in antioxidants.
Almost as important as what we can put into a plant is what we can take
out; potatoes are being modified so that they do not produce high
concentrations of toxic glycoalkaloids, and nuts are being engineered to
lack the proteins which cause allergic reactions in most people.
Perhaps even more amazingly, bananas are being engineered to produce
vaccines against hepatitis B, allowing vaccination to occur where its
otherwise too expensive or difficult to be administered. The benefits
these plants could provide to human beings all over the planet are
astronomical.
Yet organic proponents refuse to even give GMOs a chance, even to the point of hypocrisy. For example, organic farmers apply Bacillus thuringiensis
(Bt) toxin (a small insecticidal protein from soil bacteria)
unabashedly across their crops every year, as they have for decades.
It's one of the most widely used organic pesticides by organic farmers.
Yet when genetic engineering is used to place the gene encoding the Bt
toxin into a plant's genome, the resulting GM plants are vilified by the very people willing to liberally spray the exact same toxin that the
gene encodes for over the exact same species of plant. Ecologically, the
GMO is a far better solution, as it reduces the amount of toxin being
used and thus leeching into the surrounding landscape and waterways.
Other GMOs have similar goals, like making food plants flood-tolerant so
occasional flooding can replace herbicide use as a means of killing
weeds. If the goal is protect the environment, why not incorporate the
newest technologies which help us do so?
But the real reason organic farming isn't more green than
conventional is that while it might be better for local environments on
the small scale, organic farms produce far less food per unit land than
conventional ones. Organic farms produce around 80% that what the same
size conventional farm produces16 (some studies place organic yields below 50% those of conventional farms!).
Right now, roughly 800 million people suffer from hunger and malnutrition, and about 16 million of those will die from it17.
If we were to switch to entirely organic farming, the number of people
suffering would jump by 1.3 billion, assuming we use the same amount of
land that we're using now. Unfortunately, what's far more likely is that
switches to organic farming will result in the creation of new farms
via the destruction of currently untouched habitats, thus plowing over
the little wild habitat left for many threatened and endangered species.
Already, we have cleared more than 35% of the Earth's ice-free
land surface for agriculture, an area 60 times larger than the combined
area of all the world's cities and suburbs. Since the last ice age,
nothing has been more disruptive to the planet's ecosystem and its
inhabitants than agriculture. What will happen to what's left of our
planet's wildlife habitats if we need to mow down another 20% or more of
the world's ice-free land to accommodate for organic methods?
The unfortunate truth is that until organic farming can rival the
production output of conventional farming, its ecological cost due to
the need for space is devastating. As bad as any of the pesticides and
fertilizers polluting the world's waterways from conventional
agriculture are, it's a far better ecological situation than destroying
those key habitats altogether. That's not to say that there's no hope
for organic farming; better technology could overcome the production
gap, allowing organic methods to produce on par with conventional
agriculture. If that does occur, then organic agriculture becomes a lot
more ecologically sustainable. On the small scale, particularly in areas
where food surpluses already occur, organic farming could be
beneficial, but presuming it's the end all be all of sustainable
agriculture is a mistake.
Myth #4: It's all or none
The point of this piece isn't to vilify organic farming; it's
merely to point out that it's not as black and white as it looks.
Organic farming does have many potential upsides, and may indeed be the
better way to go in the long run, but it really depends on technology
and what we discover and learn in the future. Until organic farming can
produce crops on par in terms of volume with conventional methods, it
cannot be considered a viable option for the majority of the world.
Nutritionally speaking, organic food is more like a brand name or luxury
item. It's great if you can afford the higher price and want to have
it, but it's not a panacea. You would improve your nutritional intake
far more by eating a larger volume of fruits and vegetables than by
eating organic ones instead of conventionally produced ones.
What bothers me most, however, is that both sides of the organic
debate spend millions in press and advertising to attack each other
instead of looking for a resolution. Organic supporters tend to vilify
new technologies, while conventional supporters insist that chemicals
and massive production monocultures are the only way to go. This simply
strikes me as absurd. Synthetic doesn't necessarily mean bad for the
environment. Just look at technological advances in creating
biodegradable products; sometimes, we can use our knowledge and
intelligence to create things that are both useful, cheap (enough) and
ecologically responsible, as crazy as that idea may sound.
I also firmly believe that increasing the chemicals used in
agriculture to support insanely over-harvested monocultures will never
lead to ecological improvement. In my mind, the ideal future will merge
conventional and organic methods, using GMOs and/or other new
technologies to reduce pesticide use while increasing the
bioavailability of soils, crop yield, nutritional quality and
biodiversity in agricultural lands. New technology isn't the enemy of
organic farming; it should be its strongest ally.
As far as I'm concerned, the biggest myth when it comes to organic farming is that you have to choose sides. Guess what? You don't.You can appreciate the upsides of rotating crops and
how GMOs might improve output and nutrition. You, the wise and
intelligent consumer, don't have to buy into either side's propaganda
and polarize to one end or another. You can, instead, be somewhere along
the spectrum, and encourage both ends to listen up and work together to
improve our global food resources and act sustainably.
Regarding the use of GMOs: perhaps Andy Revkin from The New York Times says it better (see below). Based
on the responses, I just want to make this clear: this is NOT a
comprehensive comparison of organic and conventional agriculture, nor is
it intended to be. That post would be miles long and far more complex.
My overall belief is that there shouldn't be a dichotomy in the first
place - there are a variety of methods and practices that a farmer can
use, each with its pros and cons. The main point here is that something
"organic" isn't intrinsically better than something that isn't, and that
you have to approach all kinds of agriculture critically to achieve
optimum sustainability. Ok, and while I'm adding in notes: stop citing Bedgley et al. 2007 as evidence that organic farming produces equal yields: this study has been shown to be flawed, and was strongly critiqued (e.g. this response article).
But this issue goes far beyond the stunts of a few extreme environmentalists. While others don’t go so far as to disrupt field research (in this case testing a wheat strain modified to lower the grain’s glycemic index and increase fiber), the sentiments expressed by the raiders down under are popular among foodies and others who envision some kind of no-impact utopiafeeding some 9 billion people.
Together they summarize 25 years and more than $400 million of research by the countries most worried about impacts of this technology and find no basis for the Frankenfoodfears of millions of people in Europe or elsewhere.
A line from the newer report summarizing both says much:
The main
conclusion to be drawn from the efforts of more than 130 research
projects, covering a period of more than 25 years of research, and
involving more than 500 independent research groups, is that
biotechnology, and in particular GMOs, are not per se more risky than… conventional plant breeding technologies.
Of course that doesn’t mean this, or any, technology is perfectly safe. A very important point is made in a contribution to the European report from Marc Van Montagu, the chairman of the Institute of Plant Biotechnology for Developing Countries at Ghent University in Belgium:
The
Precautionary Principle – which some interpret as saying that, if a
course of action carries even a remote chance of irreparable damage,
then one should not pursue it, no matter how great the benefits may be –
gave Europeans a firm philosophical basis for saying no to GMOs.
Political leaders and public servants in the Member States and the EU
institutions were ill prepared for this emotional uproar.
Meeting the challenge
to ‘prove that GM crops are safe!’ is not so easy. It looks like a
scientific issue, but it isn’t. Science can certify the existence of
danger, but not its absence. Moreover scientists will continue to
question any negative results that surface, and there will certainly be
reward and recognition for the person who finds proof of harm. Expert
contention that a 100 % GM variety approved for commercialization is
neither more nor less of a health or environmental problem than its
parent crop will not answer the question.
Now, after 25 years of
field trials without evidence of harm, fears continue to trigger the
Precautionary Principle. But Europeans need to abandon this knowingly
one-sided stance and strike a balance between the advantages and
disadvantages of the technology on the basis of scientifically sound
risk assessment analysis.
The only thing I’d change is the word “Europeans” in the last sentence.
I’d substitute “well-meaning people everywhere.”
To summarize, a quarter century of careful assessment by risk-averse Europe has found no evidence of harm to the environment or health from genetically modified crops, yet environmental activists continue their anti-technology raids and rants.
It’s clear to me that genetics, intensified agriculture, organic farming, crop mixing, improved farmer training, precision fertilization and watering, improved food preservation and eating less wastefully and thoughtlessly will all play a role in coming decades — each in its place.
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