Wednesday, August 1, 2018

MH370 The Final Report (July 2018)

Spoiler alert: The conclusion is that there is no conclusion.

Here is the 400+ page report. On page 443, the conclusion is... they are unable to determine the cause of MH370's disappearance.

Here is a 9 minute video on the findings of the report:

DJ's Aviation does not go into any speculation, and respectfully reports the content of the report, and keeps his opinion (if any) out of his commentary, and does not cast aspersions on the Pilot's integrity or imputes any felonious intent or motivation.

Here are some other videos on the subject. I have only included videos that comment on the final report, or were compiled and uploaded within the last few months (from about the 4th anniversary of the disappearance, Mar 2018).

This is the CBC covering the release of the final report in late July 2018.

As is usual, newsrooms MUST find someone who will throw up controversy. At about 2:50, CBC gets a retired aviation investigator to give his opinion.

Briefly, his point is that the flaperon showed that the plane was set (or rather the flaperon was set) for a low-speed ditching into the sea. That is, the pilot was consciously trying to minimise (my interpretation) the severity of the crash into the sea, and to maximise survivability.

Somehow he finds that to incontrovertibly point to the pilot's culpability or malignant intent. How?

His theory is further explored here:

The problem with the "Pilot Suicide" Theory is that all evidence is circumstantial. There is no suicide note. There is no obvious motivation, mere speculation and projection of intent at best.

Also, if the pilot intended to suicide, why extend the flaperon? Won't a high speed dive from high altitude be better to ensure death? A low-speed ditching in the water will just make the crash more survivable. Not the action of a suicidal pilot bent on killing himself.

Next, a video projecting the path of MH370 on its final flight. The plotted path is backed by hard data - from the ATC, Pilot and ACARS data, from radar data, and then finally from the Inmarsat data. (Note that the Inmarsat data is based a a series of "handshakes" (6) between the plane and the satellite and the position is then extrapolated from the data.

I found this poignant and compelling. And my thoughts and theories are as follows.

At 00:36, the electrical power and transponder is turned off. A minute later, the plane makes a turn back towards Malaysia. Speculation: What if the power and transponder were not turned off, but went off because of a fault or a fire? And the pilot turned around to return to safety?
At 00:51, the plane changes heading towards Penang. Speculation: That may be the closest airport for the plane to land.
At 1:03, the plane plane makes a turn. Speculation: Was the plane trying to land? Were their communications out? The First Officer's mobile phone was detected by terrestrial network. Was he trying to tell Penang airport that they are trying to land? But why didn't they continue to circle? Why did they fly off? SpeculationWere they passing in and out of consciousness? Making a turn, then passing out?
Up to 1:25, the plane's path is reconstructed from Radar data. Then the plane exits the radar coverage and further locations and projected path are based on Inmarsat data.
At 3:35, the plane make a major turn towards Christmas Island. Was it trying to land on Christmas Island Airport?
At 4:12 the video suggests that the plane attempts to line up for landing, but at about the same time (8:12 am), the fuel runs out, and the plane crashes or ditches into the sea. Of course, if this is correct, the location of the plane should be south of Christmas Island. So why haven't they found it? The fact that the plane is NOT found in this area suggests that the projected path is wrong!

Here's another video with the more plausible theories, and also the major flaws in those theories:

The theories are 1) Fire, 2) Hijack, and 3) Suicide. Hijack was eliminated when the two suspects were found to be economic refugees and not linked to any terrorist groups. Also if they were terrorists, there were no claims of responsibility for the hijack. Suicide was also ruled unlikely as the pilot is stable and has not psychological issues. Also, no suicide note or message. And if he's doing it for insurance, no such claims.

So let's see the more outlandish conspiracy theories:

And then to bring us back to sanity, here are the top 5 debunked conspiracy theories.

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