Stephen Roach
May 4, 2015
The world economy is in the grips of a dangerous delusion. As the great boom that began in the 1990s gave way to an even greater bust, policymakers resorted to the timeworn tricks of financial engineering in an effort to recapture the magic. In doing so, they turned an unbalanced global economy into the Petri dish of the greatest experiment in the modern history of economic policy. They were convinced that it was a controlled experiment. Nothing could be further from the truth.
The rise and fall of post-World War II Japan heralded what was to come. The growth miracle of an ascendant Japanese economy was premised on an unsustainable suppression of the yen. When Europe and the United States challenged this mercantilist approach with the 1985 Plaza Accord, the Bank of Japan countered with aggressive monetary easing that fuelled massive asset and credit bubbles.
The rest is history. The bubbles burst, quickly bringing down Japan’s unbalanced economy. With productivity having deteriorated considerably — a symptom that had been obscured by the bubbles — Japan was unable to engineer a meaningful recovery. In fact, it still struggles with imbalances today, owing to its inability or unwillingness to embrace badly needed structural reforms — the so-called third arrow of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic recovery strategy, known as Abenomics.
Despite the abject failure of Japan’s approach, the rest of the world remains committed to using monetary policy to cure structural ailments. The die was cast in the form of a seminal 2002 paper by US Federal Reserve staff economists, which became the blueprint for America’s macroeconomic stabilisation policy under Fed chairs Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.
Monday, May 4, 2015
Sunday, May 3, 2015
Singapore's tripartism: A time for self-reflection
May 03, 2015
Chua Mui Hoong,
Chua Mui Hoong,
Opinion Editor
Sectoral approach a welcome shift; learn from European social-partners model
Just what is there to celebrate about Singapore's tripartism?
From one vantage point, a lot. The resident employment rate is at a record high of 72.3 per cent. Unemployment is low. Young people leaving school have good jobs. Companies feel secure enough to sink in billions in investment for the long term. Strikes are alien.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered a suitably rallying speech at the May Day Rally on Friday, when he said of the National Trades Union Congress: "No trade union congress anywhere else in the world has been as effective as NTUC in improving workers' lives."
Even without raw data to substantiate that, I guess many will appreciate the sentiment behind that statement, which is that the harmonious state of industrial relations here is due to the hard work of unions, employer groups and the Government, and something valuable to be safeguarded.
But consider the challenges workers face today, and you might say tripartism still has a long way to go.
Just what is there to celebrate about Singapore's tripartism?
From one vantage point, a lot. The resident employment rate is at a record high of 72.3 per cent. Unemployment is low. Young people leaving school have good jobs. Companies feel secure enough to sink in billions in investment for the long term. Strikes are alien.
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong delivered a suitably rallying speech at the May Day Rally on Friday, when he said of the National Trades Union Congress: "No trade union congress anywhere else in the world has been as effective as NTUC in improving workers' lives."
Even without raw data to substantiate that, I guess many will appreciate the sentiment behind that statement, which is that the harmonious state of industrial relations here is due to the hard work of unions, employer groups and the Government, and something valuable to be safeguarded.
But consider the challenges workers face today, and you might say tripartism still has a long way to go.
Practical, not ideological, approach needed on human rights
Anti-Semitism
is on the rise in Europe partly because countries in the region are
clinging to value systems based on an extreme ideological concept of the
universality of rights, said Mr Bilahari Kausikan, Ambassador at Large
at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who hopes South-east Asia and
Singapore will learn from Europe’s mistakes and not fall into the same
trap. Mr Kausikan made these remarks as guest of honour yesterday at a
seminar on state practice on the freedom of thought, conscience and
religion in the region. Below is his speech, which he delivered in his
personal capacity.
May 1
Human rights are undoubtedly a very important subject. But if we were to do justice to their importance, we must take a practical and not an ideological approach. And the first premise of a practical approach must be to admit that not all rights are compatible or capable of simultaneous realisation. There is not one good but many goods, and not all goods are compatible.
A corollary to this is to dismiss from our minds the myth that all rights are really universal. This should not be understood as dismissing the importance of human rights or as an excuse for suppressing them, but as a simple description of reality. The fact is, all rights evolve according to specific circumstances and within the context of particular cultures, beliefs, values and changing historical contexts. How we understand rights today is not the same as we understood them 100 or 50 or even, say, just five or 10 years ago.
Avoiding fits of intolerance
EDITORIAL
May 2, 2015
May 2, 2015
The debate over Ikea's link with outspoken pastor Lawrence Khong represents in some respects a storm in a teacup. The content of the magic show is not in question; Ikea has said it respected diversity in the community (indeed, it has every commercial reason to do so); and entertainers are entitled to their own opinions.
What touched a raw nerve was Mr Khong's strong views on homosexuality, which prompted one camp to urge Ikea to withdraw its support to avoid controversy, and another camp to decry efforts to impose ideological conformity.
What touched a raw nerve was Mr Khong's strong views on homosexuality, which prompted one camp to urge Ikea to withdraw its support to avoid controversy, and another camp to decry efforts to impose ideological conformity.
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Japan should be worried
April 24, 2015
Here's what China may be up to in the South China Sea
TETSURO KOSAKA, Nikkei senior staff writer
TOKYO -- China is pushing ahead with its artificial island building in the South China Sea, where it plans airstrips and other facilities.
Reports in Japan say the U.S. military is feeling a growing sense of urgency over China's aggresive island-making projects. But Japan should be feeling even more anxiety.
Many analysts say China is moving to secure seabed resources from around its artificial islets. But it could easily go further and even one day drive a military wedge between Japan and the U.S.
Lying at the very heart of the issue is the balance of nuclear power between the U.S. and China.
Here's what China may be up to in the South China Sea
TETSURO KOSAKA, Nikkei senior staff writer
TOKYO -- China is pushing ahead with its artificial island building in the South China Sea, where it plans airstrips and other facilities.
Reports in Japan say the U.S. military is feeling a growing sense of urgency over China's aggresive island-making projects. But Japan should be feeling even more anxiety.
Many analysts say China is moving to secure seabed resources from around its artificial islets. But it could easily go further and even one day drive a military wedge between Japan and the U.S.
Lying at the very heart of the issue is the balance of nuclear power between the U.S. and China.
Monday, April 27, 2015
China Seeks Great Power Status After Sea Retreat
by David Tweed
July 3, 2014
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Admiral Zheng He is everywhere in China these days, even though he died almost 600 years ago. The government is promoting him to remind its people -- and Asia -- that China’s destiny is to be a great naval power.
Almost a century before Christopher Columbus discovered America, Zheng in 1405 embarked on a series of voyages with ships of unrivaled size and technical prowess, reaching as far as India and Africa.
The expeditions are in the spotlight in official comments and state media as China lays claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea and President Xi Jinping seeks to revive China’s maritime pride. In doing so he risks setting up confrontations with Southeast Asian neighbors and the U.S., whose navy has patrolled the region since World War II. Geopolitical dominance of the South China Sea would give China control of one of the world’s most economically and politically strategic areas.
“The Chinese believe they have the right to be a great power,” said Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “What we are seeing is a hardening of China’s stance about its place in the world.”
July 3, 2014
July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Admiral Zheng He is everywhere in China these days, even though he died almost 600 years ago. The government is promoting him to remind its people -- and Asia -- that China’s destiny is to be a great naval power.
Almost a century before Christopher Columbus discovered America, Zheng in 1405 embarked on a series of voyages with ships of unrivaled size and technical prowess, reaching as far as India and Africa.
The expeditions are in the spotlight in official comments and state media as China lays claim to about 90 percent of the South China Sea and President Xi Jinping seeks to revive China’s maritime pride. In doing so he risks setting up confrontations with Southeast Asian neighbors and the U.S., whose navy has patrolled the region since World War II. Geopolitical dominance of the South China Sea would give China control of one of the world’s most economically and politically strategic areas.
“The Chinese believe they have the right to be a great power,” said Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “What we are seeing is a hardening of China’s stance about its place in the world.”
Philippines calls on ASEAN to urge China to halt land reclamation
April 26
KUALA LUMPUR - The Philippines called on its Southeast Asian neighbors to unite in urging China to halt reclamation of land in the South China Sea, but the call failed to raise widespread support ahead of a regional summit.
China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas. Its claims overlap with those of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
Recent satellite images suggest China has made rapid progress in filling in land in contested territory in the Spratly islands and in building an airstrip suitable for military use and that it may be planning another.
In a speech to foreign ministers ahead of the official opening of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Philippine Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario did not name China directly but said its "northern neighbor" was quickly advancing with land reclamation.
"Is it not time for ASEAN to say to our northern neighbor that what it is doing is wrong and that the massive reclamations must be immediately stopped?" Rosario asked.
KUALA LUMPUR - The Philippines called on its Southeast Asian neighbors to unite in urging China to halt reclamation of land in the South China Sea, but the call failed to raise widespread support ahead of a regional summit.
China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and gas. Its claims overlap with those of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan.
Recent satellite images suggest China has made rapid progress in filling in land in contested territory in the Spratly islands and in building an airstrip suitable for military use and that it may be planning another.
In a speech to foreign ministers ahead of the official opening of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Philippine Foreign Minister Albert del Rosario did not name China directly but said its "northern neighbor" was quickly advancing with land reclamation.
"Is it not time for ASEAN to say to our northern neighbor that what it is doing is wrong and that the massive reclamations must be immediately stopped?" Rosario asked.
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