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| Crew members signal to a F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter jet preparing to take off for a routine flight on board the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier during a routine deployment to the South China Sea, Mid-Sea, Jan 27, 2023. (Photo: REUTERS/Joseph Campbell) |
WASHINGTON: A four-star US Air Force general said in a memo that his gut told him the United States would fight China in the next two years, comments that Pentagon officials said were not consistent with American military assessments.
"I hope I am wrong," General Mike Minihan, who heads the Air Mobility Command, wrote to the leadership of its roughly 110,000 members. "My gut tells me will fight in 2025."
The letter was dated Feb 1 but had been sent out on Friday (Jan 27).
The general's views do not represent the Pentagon but show concern at the highest levels of the US military over a possible attempt by China to exert control over Taiwan, which China claims as a territory.
Both the United States and Taiwan will hold presidential elections in 2024, potentially creating an opportunity for China to take military action, Minihan wrote.
"These comments are not representative of the department's view on China," a US defense official said.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said earlier this month he seriously doubted that ramped up Chinese military activities near the Taiwan Strait were a sign of an imminent invasion of the island by Beijing.
China has stepped up its diplomatic, military and economic pressure in recent years on the self-governed island to accept Beijing's rule. Taiwan's government says it wants peace but will defend itself if attacked.
Reuters reviewed a copy of Minihan's memo, which was first reported by NBC News.
In response to a request for comment, Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said in a statement that military competition with China is a central challenge.
"Our focus remains on working alongside allies and partners to preserve a peaceful, free and open Indo-Pacific," he said.
Source: Reuters/nh
So there are two reasons for a (US) military leader to say something like this.
First, is budget. If you want more weapons and ammo, you will need money/budget. The political leaders are NOT going to give you more money (for weapons, ammo, and training) if there is no imminent threat. So you have to play up the threat.
Second, by naming China publicly, it is warning or notice given to China. China may be planning (or not) to invade Taiwan. Certainly China has not officially recognised Taiwan's right to exist as a separate, independent, and sovereign state. Xi has in fact been on record as saying that China does not rule out reuniting Taiwan "forcefully" if necessary. It is in US's (and most of the world's) interest that Taiwan's status remains as it is. Thus, the warning/notice. War does nobody any good. It is not good if China tries to use force to reunite Taiwan. The simple fact is that Taiwan doesn't want to be "reunited" with China. That should be all that matters. If China is so wonderful, Taiwan would WANT to reunite with China. But China is not.
BUT (you might ask) isn't publicly NAMING a potential threat or potential enemy already MAKING an enemy? Singapore prepares for war. But we do not publicly NAME the possible threat to Singapore (but we all know lah, right?) So isn't the US naming China as a possible threat/enemy, a diplomatic faux pas?
Yes it would be. If China has NOT already said that they are open to the use of force to reunite Taiwan.
And why has China taken this position? Because it is clear that Taiwan would NOT reunite voluntarily. First, China's proposition is not attractive. There is nothing China can offer that would benefit Taiwan. Second, the offer of "One Country, Two System" that would allow Taiwan autonomy is subverted by China's actions in Hong Kong. So that's no guarantee. China has nothing to offer Taiwan. So China realistically sees that it would have to resort to force to occupy Taiwan. Hence the threats... or promise.
And why has China taken this position? Because it is clear that Taiwan would NOT reunite voluntarily. First, China's proposition is not attractive. There is nothing China can offer that would benefit Taiwan. Second, the offer of "One Country, Two System" that would allow Taiwan autonomy is subverted by China's actions in Hong Kong. So that's no guarantee. China has nothing to offer Taiwan. So China realistically sees that it would have to resort to force to occupy Taiwan. Hence the threats... or promise.
Also, this "memo" from the 4-star General to his bosses, shouldn't this be secret or confidential? How did the media (NBC, and Reuters) get a hold of this official memo or a copy of the memo? Who leaked it? Shouldn't THAT be a question? Unless, it was NOT leaked! Or the 4-star General or the Airforce leadership WANTED the memo to be "leaked"! To "warn" China?
And why is China so bent on occupying (or "re-uniting") Taiwan?
Because China is geologically and strategically trapped.
Watch this Video:
Because of the First Island Chain, stretching from Japan, through Taiwan, the Philippines down to Borneo, the Chinese navy does not have free and unfettered (as in, "unobserved") access to the Pacific, and would not be able to move their fleet about without scrutiny. The US has alliances or pseudo-alliances or is friendly with Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, and Singapore. This allows the US to project power across the Pacific and contain China.
China is also threatened by Taiwan, which is in a strategic location, well within strategic reach of a lot of major Chinese cities along the coast from Shanghai to Shenzhen. And Taiwan has been developing and enhancing its missile defence, and may even be considering developing a strategic retaliatory strike capability:
Taiwan may be considering adopting a new “pit viper” strategy, emphasizing the ability to strike back and raise the political costs of any Chinese attempt at “reunification” through force.
Long-range cruise and ballistic missiles would be viable cornerstones of a pit viper strategy, which the missile revelations indicate Taiwan may be pursuing alongside its better-known porcupine strategy.
As such, Taiwan may rely on cruise and ballistic missiles to put China’s major cities such as Beijing and Shanghai under threat while reserving its limited number of combat aircraft for its defense.
But all these speculation may be completely off-target.
Invading Taiwan will not be easy.
First there is the logistics. China will need 400,000 to 600,000 troops to occupy Taiwan. And they will need amphibious assault vessels to ferry these half a million troops. And presumably the armoured fighting vehicles to go with them.
For comparison, the Normandy landing of WWII had about 150,000 troops. And about 1,500 landing crafts. This will be about 4 times more.
So China will have to mount an amphibious assault with 4 times more troops than the Normandy landing, fend off possible counter assault by the US and her allies which may include Japan, in addition to the Taiwanese defence. While at the same time, being careful NOT to damage the TSMC Fabs.
Because one reason to take Taiwan is to seize control of the cutting edge chip maker, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). Damaging the manufacturing facility (during an invasion) would be to kill the golden goose. China wants cutting edge technology, and if they control TSMC, they can deny the US access to high tech chips.
The issue is complex. China wants Taiwan for various reasons - political-historical, strategic military, techno-economic, and maybe even ego.
But war serves no one's best interest. China can see how the western democracies have isolated and sanctioned Russia for the invasion of Ukraine. Would those sanctions and isolation be imposed on China if it invades Taiwan? China does a lot of trade by sea. War might well close off China's access to trade by sea. This would cut off supplies, fuel, and technology.
When China "lost" Australian coal, the price of coal for heating went up, there were brown-outs, and power rationing. Factories and industries closed down for lack of power. War would be worse.
BUT... China's population is decreasing and China is about as strong and as rich as it is likely to get. Which means if it wants to reunite Taiwan by force, the window is closing...]
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